CAN TRY TO SELL AGAIN NEAR @ 8750 S/L 8810

Is Nifty heading for 8330 ?

Panama Papers: Indians on the list

Actors, politicians, businessmen, an ex-cricketer—here's a look at Indians whose names have featured in the Panama Papers so far.

Impact of the Union Budget on the Indian Stock Market

Budget day has been seen as one the The most important trading days in the history of the stock markets.Budget day trading is a Speculator’s delight. Huge swings can be seen in stocks based on how the market perceives what the finance minister just spoke. The reactions are instantaneous when one perceives the huge benefit for the huge disadvantage that comes up due to the addition or removal of some duty.

Union Budget is just 2 days away. Maximum Range on Budget day is 346 so big volatile move on cards, so trade cautiously.

Bull Markets vs. Bear Markets :Some Facts

Bull Markets: Fear of missing out.
Bear Markets: Fear of being in.

Bull Markets: Everything I buy is going up — I’m a genius.
Bear Markets: Everything I buy is going down — I’m an idiot.

Bull Markets: See, fundamentals always win out.
Bear Markets: See, technicals and sentiment rule the markets.

Bull Markets: I knew I should have had more of my portfolio in stocks.
Bear Markets: I knew I should have had more of my portfolio in bonds.

Bull Markets: That guy’s been calling for a crash for years — he’s an idiot.
Bear Markets: That guy just called the crash — he’s a genius.

Bull Markets: I want to be a long-term buy and hold investor.
Bear Markets: I want to be a short-term trader.

Bull Markets: I’m glad I was buying during the last market crash.
Bear Markets: Never try to catch a falling knife.

Bull Markets: I’ll sit tight when the market falls.
Bear Markets: Dear Lord, get me out of stocks NOW!

Bull Markets: Time to buy stocks?
Bear Markets: Time to sell stocks?

Bull Markets: Warren Buffett is washed up.
Bear Markets: Wait, Buffett is buying here?

Bull Markets: Buy & hold works.
Bear Markets: Buy & hold is dead.

Bull Markets: I’ll be greedy when other are fearful.
Bear Markets: I lied — I’m fearful when other are fearful.

Bull Markets: Buy the dip.
Bear Markets: Sell the rip.

Bull Markets: Why didn’t I invest earlier in my life?
Bear Markets: I’ll never invest again.

Bull Markets: Why would I want to diversify?
Bear Markets: Why was I so concentrated?

Bull Markets: I’m just waiting for a healthy correction to put more money to work.
Bear Markets: This market action is not healthy at all.

Bull Markets: Don’t worry, we’ll outperform during the next downturn.
Bear Markets: Don’t worry, we’ll outperform when the market turns around.

Bull Markets: It feels like markets will never fall again.
Bear Markets: It feels like markets will never rise again.

Brokerages upbeat for Samvat 2072 on better macros

Buoyed by dip in deficits, inflation & stable rupee

Performance of the Indian equity markets in Samavat 2071 was subdued on standalone basis though it did relatively better than its emerging market peers. This underperformance is largely the result of the high expectations investors placed on the newly-elected NDA government. Thus, the Indian markets witnessed a front-ended rally in 2014, which saw the year close with a return of 31 per cent, thanks largely to the general elections (mind you, little changed on the ground).

Now as the flattish Samvat 2071 draws to a close, the market is hopeful of good times in Samvat 2072, given shrinking twin deficits, lower inflation, falling interest rates, a largely stable currency and strong flows from domestic institutional investors.

Kotak Securities expects fiscal reforms to pick up speed, important legislations, especially the Goods and Services Tax, to be passed (even if in a diluted form), inflation to trend lower and monsoons to be better.

Dinesh Thakkar, Chairman and MD at Angel Broking expects further reduction of 50-100 basis points in policy rates that could improve earnings.

Potential to scale highs

“All the macro improvements, coupled with a strong stable government with effective leadership at the helm, have placed India in a position from where, not just a year or two, but the forthcoming many years, look filled with potential to scale new highs,” Thakkar added.

The only worry is decline in foreign inflows into emerging markets on account of the slowdown in China, sharp currency movements and spike in oil prices in future.

Firms with evolving macros

In terms of top picks, brokerages like only a few large-cap stocks and a host of mid-cap companies.

This is because any economic revival will boost the earnings upside of mid-caps more than of the large companies due to lower base of the former. Overall mid-cap companies have experienced greater compression in earnings than their large-cap peers.

Angel Broking prefers companies with strong competitive advantage, benefiting from evolving macros. “From a bottom-up perspective, we continue to like select emerging mid-cap companies with strong brands, entrepreneurial success and healthy growth outlook,” it said in a note.

Top picks

Infosys, L&T, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Tata Motors and Maruti Suzuki India are the common top picks among brokerages, such as Angel Broking, Edelweiss Broking,

Sharekhan and Kotak Securities. There are 29 mid-cap companies as top picks of these brokerages. Of the 35 top picks, 21 belong to sectors such as infrastructure, financial services, automobiles, pharmaceuticals and FMCG.

Source : Business Line

BSE Sensex Bear Market Underway

The Indian stock exchange, the BSE Sensex, looks to be tracing out its first steps in a new bear market so let's review the action using the monthly and weekly charts.

BSE Sensex Monthly Chart

The move up into the all time high at 30024 was a parabolic rise which is so often found at the end of bull trends.

The all time high was accompanied by a bearish divergence in the RSI despite the parabolic rise.

The MACD indicator made a bearish crossover in the month of the high and is now trending down and looking bearish.

The Bollinger Bands show price is currently finding support at the middle band and while I think price can slide a touch higher with this band I expect this support to shortly give way as price breaks down to the lower band and beyond.

The PSAR indicator has a bearish bias with the dots above price. These dots will be just above 29400 during August and I expect price to give this resistance a good test.

It is my belief that a bear market is now underway so where do I expect this bear market to end?

The horizontal line denotes the 2008 high at 21206 and I expect price to dip below this level as it gives this support a thorough workout.

I have drawn an uptrend line from the 2009 low which is a very obvious support level - so obvious that I expect price to crack below there in a kind of fake out move.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move up from 2009 low to all time high and the level that has most appeal to me currently is the 50% level which stands at 19035. Price correcting to that level would mean a solid correction of around 35%. The 61.8% level at 16442 also has to be kept in mind.

Once that low is in place I expect the overall uptrend to continue which sees price trade to new all time higher.

Let's now look in a bit closer using the weekly chart.

BSE Sensex Weekly Chart

The recent low showed a bullish divergence on the RSI while the MACD indicator has a bullish bias so all looks good for a solid move into secondary high.

The PSAR indicator has a bullish bias with the dots below price so no problems there.

The Bollinger Bands show price is back to the upper band and I expect one last surge higher as it clings to this band and puts in a secondary high.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move down from high and the first rally in a new bear trend often makes a deep retracement so the level I am favouring for secondary high is the 76.4% level which stands at 29147. Let's see.

I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan which continues to show some nice symmetry with price. We can see price finding support and resistance and all the angles as it drove into high and then started to decline. The recent low was at support from the 76.4% angle and once the secondary high is in place price should fall and crack below this support angle.

Summing up, a big bear market now looks in play while we just await the major secondary high which looks set to occur imminently.

By Austin Galt